{ "country": "ZA", "iso2": "ZA", "iso3": "ZAF", "name": "South Africa", "slug": "south-africa", "as_of": "20260905T221707Z", "build_id": "20260905T221707Z", "sources_version": "src-2026-09-05", "model_version": "1.0", "ruleset_version": "1", "states": [ { "dimension": "business", "regime": "NOT_EVALUATED", "confidence": 0.0 }, { "dimension": "economy", "regime": "NOT_EVALUATED", "confidence": 0.0 }, { "dimension": "energy", "regime": "NOT_EVALUATED", "confidence": 0.0 }, { "dimension": "health", "regime": "NOT_EVALUATED", "confidence": 0.0 }, { "dimension": "households", "regime": "NOT_EVALUATED", "confidence": 0.0 }, { "dimension": "housing", "regime": "STABLE", "confidence": 18.0 }, { "dimension": "information", "regime": "NOT_EVALUATED", "confidence": 0.0 }, { "dimension": "institutions", "regime": "ELEVATED_RISK", "confidence": 90.0 }, { "dimension": "legal", "regime": "WEAKENING", "confidence": 58.5 }, { "dimension": "safety", "regime": "NOT_EVALUATED", "confidence": 0.0 }, { "dimension": "society", "regime": "COHESIVE", "confidence": 36.0 } ], "conclusions": [ { "conclusion_code": "LEGAL_STABLE", "rendered_en": "Legal and institutional conditions remain stable (legal security 32/100, confidence 58, MEDIUM).", "rendered_es": "Las condiciones legales e institucionales se mantienen estables (seguridad jurídica 32/100, confianza 58, MEDIUM).", "evidence_refs": "[\"ETV16\"]" } ], "signals": [], "what_changed": [], "recommendations": [], "why": { "reason_codes": [], "evidence": [] }, "metrics": [ { "metric_id": "ETV05", "score": 38.2, "coverage": 0.2, "confidence": 18.0, "direction": "worse", "components": { "HOUSE_PRICE_YOY": null, "HOUSING_OVERBURDEN": null, "PRICE_TO_INCOME": 0.6176 } }, { "metric_id": "ETV08", "score": 67.9, "coverage": 0.4, "confidence": 36.0, "direction": "better", "components": { "GINI": 0.6793, "TRUST_INDEX": null, "SOCIAL_PARTICIPATION": null } }, { "metric_id": "ETV12", "score": 66.1, "coverage": 0.6, "confidence": 54.0, "direction": "worse", "components": { "OLD_AGE_DEPENDENCY": null, "WORKING_AGE_POPULATION_GROWTH": 0.365, "NATURAL_POPULATION_CHANGE": 0.3127 } }, { "metric_id": "ETV16", "score": 32.3, "coverage": 0.65, "confidence": 58.5, "direction": "better", "components": { "RULE_OF_LAW_PCTL": 0.3438, "REGULATORY_QUALITY_PCTL": 0.3229, "JUDICIAL_EFFICIENCY": null, "JUDICIAL_INDEPENDENCE": null, "CONTROL_CORRUPTION_PCTL": 0.3333, "GOV_EFFECTIVENESS_PCTL": 0.2604 } }, { "metric_id": "ETV17", "score": 29.7, "coverage": 1.0, "confidence": 90.0, "direction": "better", "components": { "CONTROL_CORRUPTION_PCTL": 0.3333, "GOV_EFFECTIVENESS_PCTL": 0.2604 } }, { "metric_id": "ETV18", "score": 28.1, "coverage": 1.0, "confidence": 90.0, "direction": "better", "components": { "POLITICAL_STABILITY_PCTL": 0.3021, "GOV_EFFECTIVENESS_PCTL": 0.2604 } }, { "metric_id": "ETV19", "score": 38.5, "coverage": 1.0, "confidence": 90.0, "direction": "better", "components": { "VOICE_ACCOUNTABILITY_PCTL": 0.3854 } }, { "metric_id": "ETV21", "score": 52.0, "coverage": 0.5, "confidence": 0.0, "direction": "better", "components": {} }, { "metric_id": "ETV22", "score": 37.1, "coverage": 0.4, "confidence": 0.0, "direction": "better", "components": {} }, { "metric_id": "ETV28", "score": 36.5, "coverage": 1.0, "confidence": 90.0, "direction": "better", "components": { "FREEDOM_HOUSE_SCORE": 0.3646 } } ], "indices": [ { "metric_id": "IDX_cost_of_living", "score": 61.8, "coverage": 0.35, "confidence": 18.0, "direction": "better", "components": { "ETV04": 40, "ETV05": 35, "ETV02": 25 } }, { "metric_id": "IDX_economic_freedom", "score": 31.3, "coverage": 0.5, "confidence": 71.1, "direction": "better", "components": { "ETV16": 30, "ETV27": 25, "ETV17": 20, "ETV14": 15, "ETV01": 10 } }, { "metric_id": "IDX_expat", "score": 44.0, "coverage": 0.48, "confidence": 63.0, "direction": "better", "components": { "ETV23": 20, "ETV05": 18, "ETV13": 16, "ETV10": 16, "ETV19": 15, "ETV18": 15 } }, { "metric_id": "IDX_housing_affordability", "score": 61.8, "coverage": 0.45, "confidence": 18.0, "direction": "better", "components": { "ETV05": 45, "ETV03": 30, "ETV04": 25 } }, { "metric_id": "IDX_personal_freedom", "score": 36.2, "coverage": 1.0, "confidence": 82.1, "direction": "better", "components": { "ETV19": 40, "ETV28": 35, "ETV16": 25 } }, { "metric_id": "IDX_safety_stability", "score": 37.1, "coverage": 0.4, "confidence": 56.2, "direction": "better", "components": { "ETV10": 40, "ETV18": 25, "ETV11": 20, "ETV21": 15 } } ], "profiles": [ { "metric_id": "PRO_entrepreneur", "score": 30.9, "coverage": 0.36, "confidence": 72.5, "direction": "better", "components": { "ETV16": 20, "ETV06": 20, "ETV27": 15, "ETV01": 14, "ETV03": 11, "ETV17": 10, "ETV18": 6, "ETV23": 4 } }, { "metric_id": "PRO_family", "score": 64.5, "coverage": 0.36, "confidence": 26.0, "direction": "better", "components": { "ETV10": 22, "ETV05": 20, "ETV13": 16, "ETV08": 16, "ETV04": 13, "ETV01": 8, "ETV15": 5 } }, { "metric_id": "PRO_remote_worker", "score": 55.1, "coverage": 0.28, "confidence": 38.6, "direction": "better", "components": { "ETV05": 20, "ETV04": 20, "ETV26": 15, "ETV27": 12, "ETV10": 10, "ETV13": 8, "ETV19": 8, "ETV15": 4, "ETV01": 3 } }, { "metric_id": "PRO_retiree", "score": 50.1, "coverage": 0.23, "confidence": 43.0, "direction": "better", "components": { "ETV13": 25, "ETV04": 20, "ETV05": 15, "ETV10": 15, "ETV02": 10, "ETV18": 8, "ETV15": 7 } } ], "master_signals": [ { "metric_id": "SIG_DEMOGRAPHIC_PRESSURE", "score": 33.8, "coverage": 0.6, "confidence": 54.0, "direction": "worse", "components": { "OLD_AGE_DEPENDENCY": null, "WORKING_AGE_POPULATION_GROWTH": 0.635, "FERTILITY_RATE": 0.677, "NATURAL_POPULATION_CHANGE": 0.687, "MEDIAN_AGE": null } }, { "metric_id": "SIG_ECONOMIC_MOMENTUM", "score": 29.4, "coverage": 0.1, "confidence": 9.0, "direction": "better", "components": { "GDP_GROWTH_QOQ": null, "EMPLOYMENT_GROWTH": null, "INDUSTRIAL_PRODUCTION_GROWTH": null, "INVESTMENT_GROWTH": null, "PRODUCTIVITY_GROWTH": 0.294, "REAL_WAGE_GROWTH": null } }, { "metric_id": "SIG_EXTERNAL_VULNERABILITY", "score": 54.7, "coverage": 0.35, "confidence": 31.5, "direction": "worse", "components": { "CURRENT_ACCOUNT_GDP": 0.453, "NIIP_GDP": null, "HHI_PARTNERS": null, "ENERGY_DEPENDENCY": null } }, { "metric_id": "SIG_FISCAL_STRESS", "score": 62.5, "coverage": 0.35, "confidence": 31.5, "direction": "worse", "components": { "GOV_DEBT_GDP": 0.375, "GOV_BALANCE_GDP": null, "GOV_INTEREST_GDP": null, "GOV_DEBT_CHANGE_3Y": null } }, { "metric_id": "SIG_HOUSING_PRESSURE", "score": 38.2, "coverage": 0.2, "confidence": 18.0, "direction": "worse", "components": { "HOUSING_OVERBURDEN": null, "PRICE_TO_INCOME": 0.618, "RENT_TO_INCOME": null, "HOUSE_PRICE_YOY": null, "RENT_GROWTH": null, "ECB_KEY_RATE": null } }, { "metric_id": "SIG_INSTITUTIONAL_HEALTH", "score": 35.2, "coverage": 0.9, "confidence": 81.0, "direction": "better", "components": { "VOICE_ACCOUNTABILITY_PCTL": 0.385, "RULE_OF_LAW_PCTL": 0.344, "REGULATORY_QUALITY_PCTL": 0.323, "CONTROL_CORRUPTION_PCTL": 0.333, "MEDIA_FREEDOM": null } }, { "metric_id": "SIG_LABOUR_HEALTH", "score": 27.3, "coverage": 0.45, "confidence": 40.5, "direction": "better", "components": { "EMPLOYMENT_RATE": 0.243, "UNEMPLOYMENT_RATE": null, "LABOUR_PARTICIPATION": 0.333, "REAL_WAGE_GROWTH": null, "VACANCY_RATE": null } }, { "metric_id": "SIG_MIGRATION_OFFSET", "score": 64.1, "coverage": 1.0, "confidence": 90.0, "direction": "better", "components": { "NET_MIGRATION": 0.61, "NATURAL_POPULATION_CHANGE": 0.687 } }, { "metric_id": "SIG_POVERTY_PRESSURE", "score": 67.9, "coverage": 0.1, "confidence": 9.0, "direction": "worse", "components": { "AROPE": null, "MATERIAL_DEPRIVATION": null, "IN_WORK_POVERTY": null, "POVERTY_RATE": null, "GINI": 0.321 } } ], "hypotheses": [ { "id": "GOLD_OVER_CASH", "question_en": "Store of value: gold or cash?", "question_es": "Reserva de valor: ¿oro o efectivo?", "verdict": "NOT_EVALUATED", "score": null, "confidence": null, "conf_band": "INSUFFICIENT", "drivers": [ "ETV02", "ETV04" ], "rendered_en": "Not enough verified data.", "rendered_es": "Datos verificados insuficientes." }, { "id": "LEAVE_THE_CITY", "question_en": "Household squeeze: stay or leave?", "question_es": "Presión doméstica: ¿quedarse o marcharse?", "verdict": "NOT_EVALUATED", "score": null, "confidence": null, "conf_band": "INSUFFICIENT", "drivers": [ "ETV04", "ETV05" ], "rendered_en": "Not enough verified data.", "rendered_es": "Datos verificados insuficientes." }, { "id": "WAIT_TO_BUY_HOME", "question_en": "Housing: buy now or wait?", "question_es": "Vivienda: ¿comprar ahora o esperar?", "verdict": "LOW_EVIDENCE", "lean_en": "Conditions support buying", "lean_es": "Las condiciones apoyan comprar", "score": 38.2, "confidence": 18.0, "conf_band": "INSUFFICIENT", "drivers": [ "ETV05" ], "rendered_en": "Housing pressure at 38/100 (prices vs affordability) argues against buying at the top.", "rendered_es": "La presión de vivienda de 38/100 (precios frente a accesibilidad) desaconseja comprar en el pico." }, { "id": "START_A_VENTURE", "question_en": "Careers: start a venture or sit tight?", "question_es": "Trabajo: ¿emprender o esperar?", "verdict": "NOT_EVALUATED", "score": null, "confidence": null, "conf_band": "INSUFFICIENT", "drivers": [ "ETV01", "ETV03" ], "rendered_en": "Not enough verified data.", "rendered_es": "Datos verificados insuficientes." }, { "id": "SEEK_WORK_ABROAD", "question_en": "Work: stay local or look abroad?", "question_es": "Empleo: ¿local o en el extranjero?", "verdict": "NOT_EVALUATED", "score": null, "confidence": null, "conf_band": "INSUFFICIENT", "drivers": [ "ETV03", "ETV09" ], "rendered_en": "Not enough verified data.", "rendered_es": "Datos verificados insuficientes." }, { "id": "LOCK_FIXED_COSTS", "question_en": "Budget: lock prices now or stay flexible?", "question_es": "Presupuesto: ¿fijar precios ahora o flexible?", "verdict": "NOT_EVALUATED", "score": null, "confidence": null, "conf_band": "INSUFFICIENT", "drivers": [ "ETV02" ], "rendered_en": "Not enough verified data.", "rendered_es": "Datos verificados insuficientes." } ], "coverage": 0.675, "sources": [ { "source_id": "ecb", "provider": "European Central Bank", "attribution": "Source: ECB Data Portal. Third-party series excluded.", "licence": "https://www.ecb.europa.eu/stats/ecb_statistics/governance_and_quality_framework/html/usage_policy.en.html", "comparability": "HIGH" }, { "source_id": "eurostat", "provider": "Eurostat (European Commission)", "attribution": "Source: Eurostat (European Commission)", "licence": "https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/help/copyright-notice", "comparability": "HIGH" }, { "source_id": "freedom_house", "provider": "Freedom House (Freedom in the World)", "attribution": "Source: Freedom House, Freedom in the World (via World Bank Data360)", "licence": "https://freedomhouse.org/about-us/content-permissions", "comparability": "HIGH" }, { "source_id": "oecd", "provider": "OECD", "attribution": "Source: OECD Data Explorer", "licence": "https://www.oecd.org/en/about/terms-conditions.html", "comparability": "HIGH" }, { "source_id": "wgi", "provider": "World Bank", "attribution": "Source: Worldwide Governance Indicators, The World Bank (CC BY 4.0)", "licence": "CC BY 4.0 (https://datacatalog.worldbank.org/search/dataset/003806)", "comparability": "HIGH" }, { "source_id": "who", "provider": "World Health Organization", "attribution": "Source: WHO Global Health Observatory", "licence": "https://www.who.int/about/policies/publishing/copyright", "comparability": "HIGH" }, { "source_id": "world_bank", "provider": "World Bank", "attribution": "Source: World Development Indicators, The World Bank", "licence": "CC BY 4.0", "comparability": "HIGH" } ], "schema_org": { "@context": "https://schema.org", "@type": "Dataset", "name": "24x country intelligence — South Africa", "description": "Deterministic country-state metrics, signals and recommendations derived from official EU public data.", "dateModified": "20260905T221707Z", "version": "src-2026-09-05", "isAccessibleForFree": true, "creator": { "@type": "Organization", "name": "24x" }, "url": "https://24x.es/country/south-africa/" }, "disclaimer": "General scenario guidance from public indicators, not personalised financial, legal, medical or tax advice. Scores are not probabilities.", "charts": [ { "indicator": "gdp_per_capita", "indicator_id": "GDP_PER_CAPITA_PPP", "file": "charts/gdp_per_capita.svg" } ], "lang": "en" }